Bayesianism without rationality
9 March 2004 by RonThe Guardian’s “Science News” reports Dr. Stephen Unwin, “a Manchester University graduate who now works as a risk assessor in Ohio” has “calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists” by using “a 200-year-old formula” called “Bayes’ Theory” (sic). He apparently “starts from the assumption that God has a 50/50 chance of existing, and then factors in the evidence both for and against the notion of a higher being”. These “factors that were considered included recognition of goodness, which Dr Unwin said makes the existence of God more likely, countered by things like the existence of natural evil - including earthquakes and cancer.” He apparently sets the whole thing out in his forthcoming book, “which includes a spreadsheet of the data used so that anyone can make the calculation themselves should they doubt its validity.”
It’s pretty funny; check it out: Odds on that God exists, says scientist. (Thanks to Jon for the link.)
